Who you got? Photo: JP Van Swae
Did John John Florence rack up enough points to make Team USA roster for the 2020 Olympic Games in less than half of a World Tour season? It sounds like an outlandish or unnecessary question; the guy hasn’t competed in three months now. It would have sounded even more stupid to seriously pose it back in June when Florence withdrew from the Oi Rio Pro in the quarterfinals and soon announced he was shutting it down for the rest of 2019 with an ACL injury.
But here we are nonetheless with three contests to go on the World Tour schedule and it’s now totally worth breaking down numbers and examining for real. Florence is still the second-highest-ranking American surfer on the CT, giving him the final slot on Team USA for the moment. The margin between John John and the next guy in line…7,250 points. And the next guy in line, as you probably already know, is Kelly Slater.
Do you think the GOAT’s a lock to make up that difference in France, Portugal, and eventually at the Pipe Masters come December? Consider this: Kelly’s exited a contest in the Round of 16 or earlier in six of eight stops this year. He could get hot anytime and anywhere, but take a look at his track record in Europe the past five years or so: in 2014, Slater made the quarterfinal of the Quiksilver Pro France and….that’s as good as it’s been. Slater sat out both events each of the past two years, exited after Round 2 once, and was bumped after Round 3 four times. While he hasn’t won Pipe since 2013, on the other hand, he’s consistently made semifinals and finals appearances more often than not. If we were talking to oddsmakers in Vegas and asked them to make predictions off of Kelly’s most recent results, they’d point toward Kelly and John John having something in the ballpark of 1,000 to 500 points between them heading into Pipe.
This weekend, Slater fell just short of qualifying for the Final of the Freshwater Pro by .2 of a point — a result that cost him a minimum of 1,425 points on the season. Those are now painfully valuable. There are any number of results he can put together in the next three contests for a variety of points combinations, but barring back-t0-back wins in France and Portugal from either Slater or Seth Moniz (currently 8,740 behind Florence), the second and final Team USA roster spot will likely be within arm’s reach for any of the three surfers (Florence, Slater, and Moniz) when the 2019 Pipe Masters starts in December.
“It is my goal to get better for Pipeline in case I have to come back and compete and gain points,” Florence admitted in an interview with ESPN in August. “That is a short-term goal. And if Kelly doesn’t gain enough points the rest of the year, it is a long-term goal to be 150 percent ready at the start of the next WCT season and have ample time to train for the Olympics next year.”
While everybody is different, the common recovery time for Average Joe rehabilitating from a torn ACL and returning to physical activity is about eight months on the short end. Professional athletes like NFL players are usually put down like racehorses for at least a year, requiring nine to ten months before doctors feel high-level athletes can comfortably start moving close to real speed. Returning at any point before that timeline is usually considered a roll of the dice for professional athletes, who will rehab, return with decent mobility and strength, and basically hope and pray they don’t re-injure a body part that’s still healing.
“You might have a 45 percent risk of tearing your new ACL if you have not rehabilitated your knee properly,” writes Howard J. Luks, MD, an orthopedic surgeon. “You can drive that risk down to 18-20 percent with the proper training. Unfortunately, once you tear your ACL you are always at risk of tearing the new ACL.”
Now do whatever math you want with this breakdown of how points are awarded for CT Rankings:
Position 1 (Winner) = 10,000 points
Position 2 (Event Runner-up) = 7,800 points
Position 3 (Semifinals) = 6, 085 points
Position 5 (Quarterfinals) = 4,745 points
Position 9 (Round of 16) = 3,320 points
Position 17 (Round of 32) = 1,330 points
Position 33 (Elimination Round) = 265 points
Kelly could win or make a final in the next two events and wipe out that entire gap. That still leaves enough room between him and Florence that John John could compete at Pipe and qualify for the Olympics by besting the 11-time champ. John could also stay on the sidelines, Kelly could keep piling on his run of equal 9s and 17s, and either not make up the rankings difference at all or squeak by with around 720 points more than Florence at the end of the season.
Would John John Florence sit out Pipe, bum knee and all, with what basically amounts to a surf off between himself and one of his heroes at the wave he grew up on? The world knows if the shoe were on the other foot, Kelly Slater would probably risk life and limb to return for Pipe and hold onto a margin that slim. He did as much last year by surfing the Pipe Masters on a semi-broken foot. And his logic supports exactly why John John might return at Pipe as well: it’s one wave where you only have to get up and go straight to score well.
I doubt John Florence is sitting at home (or stretching for PT) right now, hoping Kelly does just enough to speed up his rehab schedule and return to competition just five months after rupturing his ACL — an injury that used to be a death sentence for professional athletes. But his hand may be forced, and that’s either a scary or dramatic thing for surf fans to ponder.
December. Get here already.
