Alan Cleland is a tube hound of the highest order. Photo: Andrew Nichols //World Surf League
A few months ago, an interview I published with German Olympic surfer Tim Elter got surf fans (and some pro surfers) riled up. Comment sections lit up with claims that I was delusional for merely suggesting that Elter “could surprise people” at the Olympics in Teahupo’o.
I was quite intentional in my use of the modal verb “could” – used in English to express the probability that an event happens, even if unlikely. I know that Elter is not a favorite and the odds will not be in his favor when he goes up against Jordy Smith and Ethan Ewing in round one (yikes, tough draw there). But I also have consumed a lot of competitive sports in my life, including surfing, and I know that there are always surprises and underdog stories. Someone will punch above their weight, whether through luck or the performance of a lifetime, and take out a favorite.
We don’t even have to draw parallels between sports to look for examples. Just look at what happened at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. Peruvian Lucca Mesinas sent Julian Wilson straight into the elimination round and then went on to eliminate Leo Fioravanti. Ramzi Boukhiam got the better of John John Florence in the opening, non-elimination round. Bianca Buitendag eliminated Steph Gilmore and Amuro Tsuzuki sent Sally Fitzgibbons packing. I doubt anyone was wagering money on any of those outcomes.
I understand that shifty Japanese beachbreak conditions aren’t going to be the same as sitting shoulder-to-shoulder, waiting for a Teahupo’o set. I’ll concede that the change of venue could reduce the variance of performance level and true talent will more frequently prevail at surfing’s second Olympic dance. But it won’t completely remove the unpredictable nature of surfing. There will be underdogs. But who?
Alan Cleland
When I scan the heat draws, the first name that really jumps out to me is Mexico’s Alan Cleland. Having grown up in the detonating tubes of Pascuales, I don’t think anyone will be shocked if he passes some heats. He’s been looking sharp on his trips to Tahiti. I wouldn’t put him near the same tier as the favorites like John John Florence and Gabriel Medina, but if anyone is going to make an unsuspecting run for the podium, I’d say it’s going to be him. He’s matching up with Florence in the first round, so we’ll get an early glimpse of how they compare.
Could Shino put the shine on Teahupo’o with an underdog story for the ages? Photo: ISA
Shino Matsuda
Japan’s Shino Matsuda is coming into the Olympics without the pressure of outside expectations. Many might have no idea who she even is. Thus, success in her eyes might be making two heats, or three. Or what about besting a five-time and reigning Olympic gold medalist right off the bat? It would raise some eyebrows if she got the better of Carissa Moore in their opening round heat.
The reason I feel a potential underdog story could be brewing is that Matsuda has been putting in time at Teahupo’o – visiting several times and training with local coach Tereva David. The videos on her Instagram prove she is learning the lineup and finding the exit to some tubes. Meanwhile, Moore has been away from competition for months. Could it take her a heat or two to dust off the cobwebs and find her form? If she’s not careful, a competitor like Matsuda could make her pay.
Alonso Correa
I highlighted men’s round one, heat three as one of the heats to watch at the Olympics. The reason is the various storylines that intersect. It features the defending silver medalist Kanoa Igarashi and the two-time world champ Filipe Toledo who has had doubts cast on his abilities in heavy waves. But I also bookmarked this one because my sources on the ground in Tahiti have told me that Alonso Correa has been one of the standouts in his training trips at Teahupo’o.
The closest Correa has come to sniffing the CT is a 30th on the Challenger Series in 2021, but he could quickly make a name for himself by advancing out of that round one heat with Toledo and Igarashi. And if he gets in a groove, who knows, we could see him make a run for the podium.
How do you define success?
Who is considered an “underdog” and how you define “success” is relative. For some, passing a heat might be their version of success that creates a feel-good underdog story. For others, they might need to get to the quarterfinals before we can start getting too excited. That said, there are always underdog stories in sports, and – mark my word – there will be underdog stories at Paris 2024. Soon enough we will find out who.
