It’s coming. Photo: Matt Paul Catalano
The North Pacific is set to deliver the biggest swell of the winter for the West Coast on Thursday, December 28. The El Niño season of 2023-2024 appears to be living up to the hype with some XXL surf to close out the year.
The swell, which is currently spinning out in the Pacific due west of California, has been recorded by satellite to have 45-foot seas. It will peak in Northern California early Thursday morning with Surfline currently predicting 19 feet with an 18-second interval to hit Maverick’s and the San Francisco area. That will translate to wave faces up to 50 feet at California’s famous big wave. Even the more protected spots, like Santa Cruz, will see big surf as well with Surfline calling for 15 feet at 18 seconds. While Wednesday is calling for stormy, strong south winds for much of the region, Thursday appears to be more promising with lighter winds.
The swell will arrive later Thursday afternoon/evening for Southern California with a little less juice, but still very big. Given the westerly approach of the swell, spots like Rincon will be well exposed with 9.5 feet at 18 seconds forecast to slither past the Channel Islands. Further south, Blacks Beach in San Diego will be more sheltered, but still expecting 6.1 feet at 18 seconds, plenty to warrant dusting off some bigger boards. Todos Santos off Ensenada, Mexico will certainly be breaking as well, far enough out of the shadow of the Channel Islands and Point Conception to receive the brunt of the swell on Thursday afternoon.
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Peeking around social media, it’s apparent that big wave surfers are getting ready to chase this swell. Jojo Roper posted an Instagram story of his boards packed up in the back of a truck with a Jet Ski in tow. Nic von Rupp appears to be on his way to California, posting Surfline’s California swell charts to his Instagram. They didn’t say where they are going, but it’s presumably Maverick’s, or perhaps Todos Santos.
One wrench that might make scoring difficult is deep morning high tides on Thursday in California. The swell surge and high tide certainly will wreak havoc on the shoreline up and down the California coast.
And as if Thursday’s swell wasn’t enough, another round of swell will come right on its heels two days later on Saturday. Saturday’s swell appears to be a tad below the Thursday swell, but still massive. However, conditions on Saturday are looking a little dicey at the moment with blustery south or onshore wind forecast for much of California. Stay tuned to your preferred surf forecasts to see how this swell develops in your area.
