Photo: Tony Heff//WSL
Remember when the idea of a Brazilian Storm felt like some groundbreaking, history-in-the-making phenomenon? Flashback to let’s say somewhere between 2010 and 2014, and revisit a time when the phrase was describing the future of surfing and not its present state — a forecast of the Championship Tour being overtaken by a crop of young talent from South America that was going to flip the power dynamics of the sport. The storm, of course, had been brewing for decades since surfing was introduced to Brazil, but the chatter reached a fevered pitch in the years leading up to Gabriel Medina winning the nation’s first world title in 2014.
Now come back to today’s Championship Tour. Medina has three world titles and eighteen career victories under his belt. Filipe Toledo is right behind him with two and 17, respectively. Italo Ferreira, who qualified for the tour the year after Medina’s first title, has one of his own and 10 career victories. That’s 45 tour victories and six world titles between them.
The rest of the current men’s CT roster has 28 wins and zero world titles.
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Here are two not-so-random observations from the lack of parity on the current CT. Really, they’re just some things to chew on as the rest of the season plays out:
Let’s Put the Idea to Bed that Brazilian Surfers Are Underscored
Do I think Jack Robinson and Ethan Ewing get the occasional “Wow, it’s Robo/Ethan Ewing” bump on their scorecard? Sure, I think most surf fans have to acknowledge there are times that certain surfers are handed beneficial scores in critical moments. We’re also talking about a sport whose winners are subjectively judged, questionable officiating is an absolute guarantee here and there.
Now, are Brazilian surfers on the losing end of those questionable scores? Yeah, sometimes. Have they cost guys like Italo wins? Yeah, I’ve seen a handful of those moments.
Does the transitive logic of all this mean that Brazilian surfers are underscored?
When one nation has seven of the past 10 world titles and their three most decorated athletes have out-won the rest of an entire world tour roster, I think we can say “No.” There’s no deep state judging conspiracy plotting to overthrow Brazil’s run of dominance on the world tour.
Somebody Is Going to Blow Up This Year
Most surfers don’t win more than one event in a given year on tour. Filipe Toledo and Jack Robinson are exceptions to that rule recently. Toledo’s accomplished it several times in his career and hasn’t gone a full season without winning at least one contest since 2016. More than two wins though is a monstrous year for anybody.
They are not going to sweep 2025’s remaining nine events between them. So, who else on the current roster adds another win or maybe even two wins to their career total? Smart money would lean toward Griffin Colapinto and Ethan Ewing as next-in-line world title threats. But there are still more than two dozen surfers left making up the rest of the CT and statistically speaking, we’re more likely to see a surfer from that group leap into the elite of the elite tier in the rankings.
Who’s that dark horse? I think that will be the most interesting thing to watch unfold on the men’s CT this year.
