Gabriel Medina, gettin’ his warmup laps in. Photo: Pablo Jimenez//ISA
For years we’ve all debated topics that revolve around the surf forecast for the 2024 Olympics. If it’s too big, will they run? How big is too big? If it’s too small, the field of medal contenders will considerably widen. Will we get a classic day of overhead Teahupo’o tubes that will give us the John John versus Medina shootout we’re all subconsciously rooting for?
Now that we are two days away from the surfing event window (July 27 – August 5) the forecast is starting to take shape. It looks like the window will open with a moderate swell and clean conditions, with lots of uncertainty in the longer-range forecast featuring, at times, pesky onshore wind. There could be epic surf at the back end of the window. To make sense of how this forecast translates particularly to the wave at Teahupo’o, I asked two locals for their initial thoughts on what they think the surf will look like and when the Olympics could run.
Tereva David – Local pro surfer/Olympic coach
The first two days, the 27th and the 28th, should be pretty good, 4-6 foot Hawaiian, medium size Teahupo’o with offshore winds. It will be pretty good conditions for the start. Then the two last days of the waiting period, the 4th and the 5th, look the best. The wind is east/side/offshore on the 4th and offshore on the 5th, with a south-southwest swell, the best for Teahupo’o. It will be really open and long.
That swell could start from the 3rd, but the conditions will be way better starting the 4th. That south-southwest swell direction will make a really long barrel at Teahupo’o, with a good “West Bowl.” It could be really good for the surfers, the women and the men. So my proposal for days to run is the first two days and the last two days. In the middle the wind is turning a lot, staying onshore for a few days.
Let’s see what happens. Maybe the forecast will change because it’s still far away. I’m going to keep an eye on it every day.
Tim McKenna – Local photographer
It looks like the first two days (Saturday and Sunday) of the period will have good conditions with good winds, although the swell will be pretty small by Monday. The wind forecast also shows onshore for Monday – I don’t think they will run in those conditions.
Unfortunately, the big swell forecasted for July 30th/31st and August 1st comes with onshore winds. August 1st could be manageable as the winds are light. August 2nd is back to cleanish conditions. Saturday the 3rd is smallish. Sunday the 4th is now looking insane for a finals day. It’ll maybe be too big for the girls, but all-time for the guys.
It’s going to be a tough call for the contest director as we have a full 360-degree wind pattern during the week. It will mess up the lineup once it goes onshore. I would run Saturday the 27th and Sunday the 28th, then do the finals either Aug 1st, Friday the 2nd, or Sunday the 4th depending on the latest wind forecast.
There will be waves
While the forecast team will have their hands full looking at the wind models, one thing is sure: It will not be flat, which was the whole reason for doing the Olympics in Tahiti in the first place. It’s prime season. Based on what these locals said, there’s a good chance we get at least a day of epic surf somewhere along the way if not more.
