The WSL just crunched the numbers and Gabriel Medina’s world title seems all but certain. Photo: Poullenot/WSL
With the Pipe Invitational fully wrapped – congrats Ryan Callinan and Benji Brand! – the Pipe Masters is likely to kick off today in six-to-eight-foot Pipe. In other words, we’ve come to the dying hours of the 2018 world title race. Three men (Gabriel Medina, Filipe Toledo, and Julian Wilson) are all battling for the ultimate prize, but new analysis may reveal just how certain it will be that Medina clinches his second title at Pipe.
“The WSL Stats department took an ultra-close look at past performances, CT competition trends and a huge pile of league data to calculate the probability of the three Title contenders – Gabriel Medina, Filipe Toledo and Julian Wilson – and their individual chances of winning the 2018 World Title at Pipe,” explains the WSL.
And what were the results?
Medina’s got a 91 percent chance of winning. Filipe sits at six percent and Julian’s at three percent. Not exactly the climactic conclusion you’d hope for at the final event of the season. Not to mention, it’s gotta be a major blow to Filipe and Julian’s confidence levels seeing just how much of a long shot their world title dreams are.
So how’d the WSL get these numbers?
“Our analysis is based on the Title contenders heat differentials from their previous three years at Pipe, their previous three events in 2018 as well as their 2018 season,” they said.
As a reminder, here are the world title scenarios:
If Gabriel Medina makes the final at Pipeline, he wins the World Title.
If Gabriel Medina places 3rd at Pipeline, Julian Wilson and Filipe Toledo will need a 1st to win the World Title.
If Gabriel Medina finishes 5th or worse at Pipeline, Julian Wilson and Filipe Toledo will need to make the final to win the World Title.
