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a surfer wipes out in the barrel

Bonus prediction: Your friend will claim he got barreled when this is what actually happened. Photo: Unsplash


The Inertia

Want to know a really awesome thing about publishing a piece on “Bold Predictions for a Brand New Year” on December 31? Nobody is ever held to account for screwing them up. You’ll have forgotten them all by January 15 anyway and you sure as hell aren’t going to dig back through the dark corners of internet archives after next Christmas. It’s the least consequential task to take on in the super-inconsequential world of internet publishing — the same place we’ve all been taught you can now shout out any information you want without said information needing to be factual.

Years ago, every surf pub on the planet made such bold and brave annual predictions as “Dane Reynolds Will Win x World Titles,” or “Kelly Slater Will Finally Hang Them Up.” I fact-checked this and nobody was ever fired for these obtuse claims, only proving my point. So, speaking of the devil, I’m inspired to give you predictions you can absolutely count on in 2022. None of this bold and outlandish crap. Take these to the bank. For example…

Kelly Slater Will Be Asked About Retirement

Kelly’s pushing 70 now. At least. But here’s the thing people easily forget when the Kelly-Throws-In-the-Towel speculation begins…he already retired a long time ago.

That three-year break during the height of the boy band era added at least as many World Tour campaigns to the back end of his run. So whenever Kelly does say he’s retiring, we should tack on three more years before he actually rides off into the sunset. Add another year for every new board he designs and launches, subtract the emotional toll of The Ultimate Surfer cameos left on his contract, but then add one to three more comps for every year since he last had hair, and Kelly Slater still has a lot left in the tank.

Still, the dude could call it quits at any time. Or never. Whichever comes first. Maybe he’s just waiting for Tom Brady to bow out first. One thing I can guaran-damn-tee, though, is that six out of about every five conversations Kelly has with a member of the media will feature the question. 

Gabriel Medina Will Enrage Surfers By Doing a Thing None of Them Would Ever, Or Could Ever Possibly Do

You know what pisses surf fans off? Gabriel Medina. Know what pisses them off even more than Gabriel Medina? Gabriel Medina doing things in surf contests that no surfer would ever, under any circumstances whatsoever do themselves. Ever.

If a group of humans exists on the planet who can and should criticize others it’s those who watch professional surfing. They are righteous. They are infallible. Which is exactly why they hate Gabriel Medina’s smug smile with the fury of a thousand angry locals.

Gabby may even take 2022 off. And you’d think that’d put my prediction on shaky ground but alas, I’ll take your doubt and raise you logic: What kind of terrible person wins three world titles and then treats the next year like a victory lap? Oh, the nerve.

The Tide Will Swing One or Two Times Per Day

Climate change? Pffft….

Some people want you to freak out over the latest and greatest “hottest day on record” headlines, or all the estimates that our planet has about 37 months left in the tank.

Not I. I wave my finger at thee. It is perfectly reasonable to expect Mother Earth to nurture our population as we march toward 10-billion strong. She has enough resources for at least that much. And as such, the Earth will continue to rotate, the sun will rise, and the tides will swing once or twice per day. Hell, I think she can handle another 10 billion humans after that. Which brings me to another perfectly reliable prediction for 2022…

Crowds Will Suck. And People Will Complain About Them

Crowded lineups are a totally new thing. As such, we should all spend the entirety of 2022 complaining about how much worse they are getting day after day.

Editor’s Note: Johnny Utah is an “Eff-Bee-Eye” agent and an expert in works of satire. More of his investigative work can be found here

 
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