A clash of the titans in the semifinals. Photos: ISA
Surfing’s 2024 Olympic semifinals feature some alluring match-ups. None more spicy than the second men’s heat featuring two of the most dynamic surfers in the world, Jack Robinson and Gabriel Medina. Throughout the event, they’ve looked destined for a showdown. Medina owns the highest-scored wave of the the competition with his 9.9 in round three. Robinson owns the second-highest score with the 9.87 he earned in round two. Don’t forget these two adversaries faced off here just last year in the WSL Tahiti Pro final, where Robinson edged out Medina by less than a point.
So far, Medina has looked completely locked in at the Olympic venue. His track record in Tahiti is unparalleled. Since Medina won his first world title in 2014, he’s never finished worse than third at the Tahiti Pro. He’s a machine in Teahupo’o’s slabby lefts.
While it may seem that a Medina finals appearance was preordained, a closer look at the numbers shows that Robinson might be Medina’s kryptonite in such waves. Robinson and Medina have faced off head-to-head six times on the Championship Tour dating back to 2018. Their record is remarkably even: three wins each. However, looking closer at where each has won may foreshadow the result of tomorrow’s match-up.
Medina’s wins over Robinson came in Portugal this year, El Salvador in 2022, and Uluwatu in 2018 (which the contest was relocated to mid-event because of shark activity in Margaret River). On the other hand, Robinson’s wins all have a pattern: They took place in heavy, barreling, left reef breaks. He won at the Tahiti Pro in 2023, Pipeline in 2023 (note that one of Robinson’s scoring waves was at Backdoor), and G-Land in 2022.
Robinson has Medina’s number in this type of surf, which seems to go against logic given Medina is goofy and known for his performance in such waves. But the 26-year-old Margaret River local has been the chink in Medina’s armor.
Adding more drama to the heat, when Robison was asked about the upcoming confrontation with Medina in the media zone his demeanor became noticeably more serious. With little emotion, he told reporters, “I think everyone (competing) is good,” seemingly forgetting Medina’s name while letting his feeling’s known there’s more than one surfer that could win gold.
Almost everyone – including myself – has picked Medina to be the Olympic Champion. But analytics from their historic matchups are trending towards a different outcome. Don’t be surprised if Robinson holds true to his track record and sends Medina packing in the semis.
