It’s gonna take some work for Gabs to get in. Photo: Thiago Diz//World Surf League
No matter what you think of Gabriel Medina, we’re all rooting for him to sneak into the Final 5, right? It would exponentially increase the drama to see Medina at Lowers squaring off against the hometown hero Griffin Colapinto and the two-time world champ John John Florence. Coming into the last event of the year, the Fiji Pro, there are numerous ways that the Final 5 could turn out. The only thing that is certain is John John has clinched the top spot. Spots two through five are up for grabs and due to the logjam of contenders, I can virtually guarantee that the current rankings will not be the same post Fiji.
But Medina finds himself in a precarious situation, currently ranked eighth in the world. He needs to knock off one of the guys currently in the top five (Colapinto, Robinson, Ferreira, or Ewing) as well as hold off Yago Dora and Jordy Smith, who are sixth and seventh, respectively. A win is obviously Medina’s best shot at qualification, but even that is not going to guarantee him a spot. He needs to take care of business and hope that some of his competitors flail.
Let’s take a look at the possible outcomes for Medina at the Fiji Pro.
Medina Wins
Medina has won in Fiji twice (2014 and 2016) and repeating the feat will open the most scenarios for a Final 5 berth. But even if Medina snags the 10,000 points for first place, if the four surfers currently ranked two through five perform well, it’s possible that a Medina win would not be enough. For example, a second for Ewing, a third for Ferreira and Robinson, and a fifth for Colapinto would keep Medina on the outside looking in. But Medina could move up into a qualifying position if Ewing finishes third, Robinson or Ferreira finish fifth, or Colapinto finishes 17th.
At the same time, this also depends on Dora, who with a second, could still finish ahead of Medina in this scenario, in which case Medina would need two of the aforementioned surfers currently ranked two through five to have “poor” performances. Having to leapfrog Smith and Dora is going to add another layer of difficulty for Medina in the number crunching.
But mathematics aside, if Medina were to win in Fiji, his chances of qualifying, while not guaranteed, would be very high.
Medina Finishes Second
If Medina gets second, as he did in his 2012 debut performance in Fiji, the situation gets one level more difficult for him. Either Ewing would need to finish fifth or Ferreira/Robinson would need to finish 17th. Colapinto would be unsurpassable. And let’s say Ewing does finish fifth, a third place finish for Dora or Smith would still put them ahead of Medina, which would also require an early exit from Ferreira or Robinson.
I think a second still puts Medina in a solid position.
Medina Finishes Third
A third-place finish would be rather dire for Medina. He wouldn’t be able to pass Ferreira, Robinson, or Colapinto. His only shot would be a 17th from Ewing. Even a ninth from Ewing would block Medina. Additionally, Dora and Smith would need to place no higher than ninth and Crosby Colapinto could not win the event. I wouldn’t bet money on this scenario coming to fruition.
Medina Finishes Fifth
Technically speaking, Medina could still finish in the top five overall with a fifth in Fiji, but it’s a highly unlikely scenario. Ewing, Smith, and Dora would all have to drop the ball with 17ths. Also, in this scenario, those who currently trail Medina, Crosby Colapinto, Rio Waida, Cole Houshmand, and Jake Marshall, could not win the event, which would give any of them more points than Medina.
A Final Is the Best Bet
If Medina makes the final in Fiji, regardless of the outcome, I like his chances of making the Final 5. Interestingly enough, Medina’s performances in Fiji from 2012 to 2017 have been alternating years of feast or famine. In the even years (2012, 2014, and 2016), Medina made the final every time, winning twice. In the odd years (2013, 2015, and 2017), he finished 25th, 13th, and 13th, respectively. It seems like Medina is either on or off in Fiji. I am hoping for it to be an “on” year, not only because I picked Medina as my pre-season bet to win it all, but also, for the sake of surfing, the Final 5 will be exponentially more exciting if he’s in it.
