With the insane conditions of last week’s mega-swell fading into memory, it’s time to look to the future. In the latest video from Stormsurf, self-taught surf meteorologist and big-wave surfer Mark Sponsler broke down the impending swell patterns to see what’s in store in the weeks to come.
Currently the north Pacific ocean has a pair of gales producing 25-foot seas aimed at the West Coast. Behind those storms is a newly developing gale, just west of the dateline with 28-foot seas. “That’s not even counting the multiple smaller, but still well-ridable swells that are starting to impact the U.S. west coast and fading in Hawaii,” added Sponsler. “There is a lot of surf either in the water or on the way, with no end in sight.”
“We start with our little gale off California producing 23-foot seas, so that’s good for 13 or 14-second period swell, but it’s this storm developing in the northern Gulf of Alaska that is of interest,” said Sponsler. The highest seas from the second storm are predicted to peak around 51-feet on Tuesday night. After that fades out, the next system is aimed squarely at Hawaii, peaking at 42.8-foot seas on Saturday night. “Three big ones forecast, all on a rather northerly track,” said Sponsler. Unlike last week, these systems are more aimed towards Canada and the Pacific Northwest, down to around Point Conception, with some side-band energy into Hawaii and “whatever can sneak into Southern California,” per Sponsler.
For insight into how this will actually affect surf, Sponsler turned to a few local predictions. Ocean Beach is predicted to see swells of 11 feet at 13 seconds on Wednesday, producing waves up to 17-feet. Another peak is predicted for Friday, with a 10-foot, 18-second swell producing 19-foot waves. However, the presence of high winds will temper the conditions. “Pretty much a blowout, except at the most protected locations,” said Sponsler. “Swell is not the issue. Local conditions are.”
Down in San Diego, a similar pattern was predicted. “Three-foot surf, holding in the three-foot range into Tuesday, Wednesday. New swell arrives in the four to five-foot range on Thursday. Trickling down on Friday, and then for the weekend, four and a half feet. Then maybe a bigger pulse as we get into Monday.” He also noted that wind would be an issue here as well.
The North Shore of Oahu’s still seeing eight-foot surf that should jump up to 11 on Wednesday, before slowly lowering, then peaking again over the weekend. “No lack of swell, we’ll take it,” said Sponsler.
“Right now, model’s looking very solid. Three storms forecast for the north Pacific, with swells of a more northerly angle forecast for the next two weeks,” Sponsler concluded.
