Caity Simmers has led a complete power structure reorganiztion in women’s competitive surfing. Photo: Daniel Smorigo//World Surf League
With nine Championship Tour events complete and just the Fiji Pro and WSL Finals left of the 2024 season, we’ve more than enough data to look at the trends from another pro surfing lap around the sun. From the cut to the conditions, new world orders, depth of fields and wildcards, here’s what we’ve learned, and what we might find out.
Jury Still Out On the Cut
The idea, and the execution, of the cut still bring as many problems as it solves. On the positive side, there’s now a more urgent narrative that comes with jeopardy in the early part of the season. I doubt, for example, that I would’ve been emotionally invested in a Round 3 heat between Miguel and Sammy Pupo at Margaret River if the loser wasn’t facing the existential threat of losing his CT place. The domination by John John Florence and Caity Simmers would have also previously seen the world title races effectively over by now, and all tension vacuumed from the race.
On the flipside, some might argue that if one, or both, of those surfers don’t win at three-foot Trestles, questions will be raised over the legitimacy of the world champion. And for the remaining event in Fiji, all that’s really on the line now is the race for fifth place. And if the answer is whether Johanne Defay or Gabriela Bryan make the Finals, maybe the cut is asking the wrong questions.
It’s All About the Forecast – It’s Always Been About the Forecast
It’s reductive and obvious, but it doesn’t make it any less true; a surfing competition is only as good as the waves it gets. This year’s clutch, memorable moments came when the forecast delivered. At Pipeline, the epic conditions allowed the women to stick a flag in the sand. Pipe wouldn’t have been “for the fucking girls” if it wasn’t eight-foot and perfect. And while Portugal was mangled by a horrendous storm sitting 200 yards off Supertubes, and Saquerema by wobble-inducing bad banks, on the whole, the waves have largely been on the favorable side, with Bells, Margies and El Salvador at least offering opportunity and a level, if sloping, playing field. Mind you, it will be the Trestles forecast that ultimately decides whether 2024 is memorable, or not. Nature holds the cards. It has always been thus.
The Men’s Field Lacks Serious Depth
In the Men’s especially, a lack of depth, coupled with a lack of jeopardy after the cut, has led to most of the early rounds lacking any real quality or drama. After the top eight (Florence, Colapinto, Robinson, Ferreira, Ewing, Dora, Smith and Medina) there is a serious drop-off in class and experience. The Moroccan rookie Ramzi Boukhaim has offered a point of difference, Cole and Crosby showed signs of their incredibly high ceilings, but the rest are a mix of established journeymen (O’Leary, Callinan, Fioravanti) and younger mid-table pros (Moniz, Marshall, O’Brien, Mamiya). All are, obviously, incredible surfers, but with no wunderkinds or athletes with world title aspirations, the current crop lacks depth and dynamism.
The Women’s Generational Transformation
In contrast, the women’s field has undergone the first real radical transformation in over a decade. With Moore and Gilmore on sabbatical, and Tyler Wright again suffering medical issues, there is a massive hole in the shape of the surfers that have won 15 of the last 16 world titles. That may have been an issue if the void hadn’t been filled by the best group of young talent since Steph and Riss changed the game back in the noughties. Caitly Simmers, Molly Picklum and Caroline Marks, plus Gabriel Bryan and Brisa Hennessy have suddenly and forcefully taken over the wheel. “Watching those young girls surf Pipe and Teahupo’o had had me thinking whether I’ll come back at all,” Steph Gilmore told The Inertia. “They’ve just raised the bar so high, so quickly. It’s a whole new ball game.”
Erin Brooks at Snapper Rocks. She’s sure to make noise in Fiji. Photo: WSL
Flies in the Ointment
The announcement of Kelly Slater, Erin Brooks and Sierra Kerr as wildcards for Fiji could produce the first real spoilers of the calendar year. With the very notable exception of Vahine Fierro’s win at Teahupo’o, no wildcards have made a serious impact at any of the CT events. It seems the top seeds have had too much firepower and experience for all local wildcards or invitees, no matter what their relationship with the wave. Fiji, however, could be very different.
With Kelly (probably) surfing his last CT event at his favorite wave, the narrative Klaxon is on high volume and the spoiler alert writes itself. Both Brooks and Kerr have been earmarked as potential future world champions, and despite their extreme youth have already forged serious reps in barreling, heavy waves. Coming full circle back to the cut chat, in the past their inclusion could have had massive world title implications. That potential for real drama has been removed, but all the surfers going for a top-five spot won’t want to draw any of these wildcards.
