Does Kelly Slater have a chink in his armor? Probably not. But here’s one irrefutable statistic. Photo: Branden Aroyan
We all know Kelly Slater as possibly the best surfer of all time. He may even be the best athlete of all time. He has schooled at least three distinct generations of surfers, and at 40 years of age, he’s still fighting for world titles. His win/lose ratio over nearly all other competitors on the World Tour is nothing short of amazing. Although not unbeatable, chances are that he’ll prevail against anyone who draws him. Or are they?
There may be a chink in his armor. Statistically, World Tour rookies have the best chance of beating Kelly Slater. At first it seems like a coincidence, but after a closer look, it might not be.
It goes back all the way to his own first full year on the World Championship Tour, the first year of the two-tier system (before there was no distinction between WCT and WQS). After a bad result at the inaugural event, the tour moved to the beach breaks of North Narrabeen. Slater went all the way to the final, taking out veterans such as Gary Elkerton, Graham Wilson and Damien Hardman, making it a 100% new generation final against Aussie star Shane Herring. The battle was close, but in the end it was Herring who took home the win. It would be the first and last encounter at this level of competition, but that was where it all started: the legacy and the chink in the armor.
Shane Powell was also a member of this new generation and was on his first full year on tour. The two met again several times throughout their years on tour, but the only time he would have a wining record against Kelly would be this first year, in which he beat him at the third round of Gunston 500.
Remember Jojo de Olivença? Most (outside Brazil) will not, but he qualified for 1994 WCT season, eliminated Kelly Slater at the Yop Pro in Reunion Island and didn’t stop until he made the final, losing to Sunny Garcia. Danny Wills had a tough first year on tour in 1997, but managed a big heat win at the Buondi Pro, in Figueira da Foz, Portugal, against then 5x World Champion. He would improve his stats in the next year, but only during the Japanese events where he was apparently touched by God, took out both events and nearly took the ASP World Title home. But soon, just like everybody else, he ended up with a losing record against Slater.
Same thing with Taj Burrow in 1998, Bruce Irons in 2004 and Chris Ward/Bede Durbidge in 2005. Bruce Irons had actually lost against Slater three times before, but on his rookie year he evened the score, making it 3-3. The list goes on: Bobby Martinez in 2006, Jeremy Flores and Kai Otton in 2007, Tiago Pires in 2008 and Aritz Aranburu in 2009, Jadson André in 2010 – all rookies taking out Kelly. More recently there was Gabriel Medina beating the champ in his famous first half year.
So, there you have it rookies. Take advantage of your first year. It might be your best shot to beat the King!
