Erin Brooks is one of two women in the rookie class who have CT wins before they officially qualified. Photo: Matt Dunbar//WSL
Psychologists say there are four stages of learning a new skill. The first is unconscious incompetence; here the worst aspect is not that you don’t know how to do the skill, but that you don’t even realize you can’t. The second stage is when you figure out you are incompetent. Then comes progress towards competence, before the last stage – you can perform the skill at a high level, with ease.
The rookies of the 2025 Championship Tour season may need to go through these steps, and fast. They’ll have seven events to progress from unconscious incompetence (a stage I’ve been stuck at professionally for decades) to stage four, and making the cut.
With that in mind, we thought we’d break down the class of 2025 into manageable data chunks like CT history, age, past performance, nationality and stance, to get a better handle on their chances of success, and failure.
The Rookies
Men’s: Marco Mignot, Joel Vaughan, George Pittar, Edgard Groggia, Jackson Bunch
Women’s: Erin Brooks, Bella Kenworthy, Vahine Fierro
Rookie With a CT Win
In a professional surfing first, two rookies will compete having already won a CT event. Vahine Fierro and Erin Brooks won as wildcards at Tahiti and Cloudbreak in 2024. The last surfer to do that was Tyler Wright, who surfed in 2011 having won Sunset as a wildcard in 2010. In the Men’s you have to go back to Jordy Smith’s rookie year of 2009, after he had won J-Bay the year before. To have one rookie with a CT win is an anomaly, to have two in the same year is as rare as rocking-horse shit.
The Age Gap
There are three female rookies in 2025, as opposed to just the two last year (Sawyer Lindblad and Alyssa Spencer). The average age of the class of 2025 comes in at an even 20, dragged up by Vahine Fierro who just turned 25. It’s worth noting that Erin Brooks will compete against Steph Gilmore. Erin was born the year Steph claimed her first World Title. There are five male rookies, and it is one of the more inexperienced collectives in recent years. The average age is 23.2, with Edgard Groggia the eldest at 28 and Jackson Bunch the youngest, having turned 21 in December. Recent rookie classes have usually featured a few hardened Qualifying Series warriors, such as Ramzi Boukhaim, Max Huscenot and Carlos Muniz, but Pittar, Vaughan and Bunch will hit the big leagues having done just two full years on the Challenger Series. That lack of experience could be crucial given they have just seven events to get acclimatized.
Is Past Performance a Predictor of Future Success?
Four of the seven male rookies from last year made the cut, an above-average return on the past five years average of 41 percent. The Rookie of The Year was Crosby Colapinto who finished as the World No. 10. Cracking the top 10 is about the best a debutant can ask for, with Morgan Cibilic the only male rookie to finish the year in the top five in the last decade. That was a truncated season, and unfortunately for Morgs, he was cut in 2022. The women’s rookie results however have been a better indicator of future stardom. Caity Simmers finished as the World No. 4 and Rookie of the Year in 2023 and claimed her world title in her sophomore year. Caroline Marks also claimed both prizes, though five years apart. It is a trajectory that many think Erin Brooks is best placed to emulate.
Marco Mignot is a citizen of the world. Photo: WSL
French With a Twist of History
Vahine Fierro will surf under the French tricolor flag but will be the first Tahitian woman full-time CT surfer. Since the two-tier CT system was introduced in 1997, Michel Bourez has been the only Tahitian to surf in the elite league. Fierro’s ascent is therefore historic, and while she doesn’t need any added incentive to make the cut, by doing so she’d have the chance to defend her CT win at home at Teahupo’o. In the men’s, Marco Mignot will be the only male surfer representing France in 2025. And yet, the flag on his jersey doesn’t tell half the story. His mother is from the French Caribbean Island of St. Martin, his dad, Christophe, was born in Africa, but has a Canadian passport having moved there when he was two. The couple set up a hotel in Sayulita, Mexico, where Marco has done most of his surfing, except when competing in France. His global citizenship was aided by sailing the globe with his parents and three siblings for large chunks of his childhood.
Bella Kenworthy is the lone natural footer in the women’s rookie class. Photo: WSL
Goofy vs. Natural
Of the eight rookies hitting the CT in 2025 three, or 37.5 percent for those with a beautiful mind, will surf with their right foot forward. The data however is skewed by gender. Jackson Bunch is the only goofy of the five male rookies, while Brooks and Fierro up the ratio to 66 percent in the women’s, with Bella Kenworthy the sole regular. The rookie average is slightly up on the data set as a whole; nine of the 34 men are goofy, and five of the 17 women, averaging out at 27.45 percent. Being a goofy, this all smacks of a WSL conspiracy. On tour, there are five peaks (Pipe, Abu Dhabi, Peniche, Saquereama and Trestles), five rights (Snapper, Bells, El Salvador, Margaret River and J-Bay) and just two lefts – Tahiti and Cloudbreak. When will this injustice ever end?
