Reckon this guy has a shot? Photo: WSL
Couldn’t the conditions have been worse—like they were every other day—when Big Whitey decided to chomp on Mick’s leash? It was impossible to avoid getting caught up in the shark attack drama, but missing out on Julian Wilson and Mick Fanning spar in near-perfect Jeffrey’s Bay was a serious disappointment. Oh well. Perhaps we’ll get to see them next year. That is, if they decide to return to South Africa in 2016. With the hype on Jeffrey’s Bay waning, let’s turn our attention to Tahiti, which is just around the corner. Let’s pray for waves like we experienced last year, and keep these ten things in mind, dear surf fan:
1. The shark attack was the only possible Finals outcome that would’ve seen Adriano wearing the gold jersey into Tahiti.
The winner of the J-Bay Open would have snagged it had Fanning not been antagonized by the man in the gray suit. While we’re on the subject, it’s incorrect to say that Julian and Mick “split the points,” as many have been saying. There were 18,000 total points up for grabs, and they each got the second-place allotment of 8,000. Here’s the explanation from the WSL, which basically boils down to: “It’s the rule.”
Every sport has dumb rules, like the NFL’s “Tuck Rule,” which was changed after it ushered the Patriots to their first Super Bowl. And to be fair, the WSL hasn’t had much cause to scrutinize this one. But they should change it going forward. And in a perfect world, Mick and Julian would each have received 9,000 points; not 8,000.
2. In fantasy surfing, you don’t just want to pick who will go the furthest in the competition—you want to pick who will win three-man heats as well.
The twenty points you get for skipping a round will be more than you get for picking a surfer who wins his Round 2 or Round 5 heat (barring a perfect heat). So who does the best in three-man heats? Last year, Taj, Gabriel, and Joel were the tour’s top three, going a combined 40-16 in three-man heats. This year, Gabriel and Joel are both still above average at 4-4, but Taj has won just two of his seven three-man heats, despite his much higher ranking.
If you want sneaker fantasy points, look to the people in Group B and C who still consistently win three-man heats.
3. The World Title race is insanely tight.
Everyone except Mick has at least two 13th place finishes or worse—Mick has two 9ths and a 13th. The top five are separated by 5,300 points and the top three are separated by less than 2,000.
4. The guy in sixth place still totally has a chance.
Though Kelly’s 10,000 points (exactly) behind de Souza, he isn’t counting a 13th for sure yet, which is more than Filipe Toledo can say. It’s also more than anybody ranked behind him can say. Thus, Kelly should have his eyes focused straight ahead.
And didn’t “The Kelly Kut” just make you believe—nah, make you certain—that he’s going to be in the running come Pipe? Look, we all thought Fiji would be his event. And then he lost to Italo Ferreira. At J-Bay, he did well but came up just shy. But it says something that Kelly’s season feels supremely disappointing, and yet, his shiny dome is still there at sixth on the WSL rankings page. In a lot of ways, he’s been the most consistent surfer on tour this year. He’s just hasn’t been consistently Kelly.
As a side note, didn’t “The Kelly Kut” also cause you to want him to ride bigger boards again? We all appreciate his efforts on the progression front, but there’s just something about watching a sharp, narrow, pointed nose whip around under Kelly’s feet that doesn’t exist when he’s riding, say, a 4’10” Tomo.
5. Ricardo Christie is ripping. And he has finished better than last just twice.
In Fiji, Ricardo lost to Jeremy Flores—17.7 to a 17.47 in Round 2. Then, he lost in Round 2 at J-Bay to Joel–18.84 to a 18.13. In a rookie class that has suddenly become one of the most impressive in recent memory, his surfing stands out. But he won’t even come close to requalifying without some results in the second half of the season.
6. After flailing in the first three events, the rookie class as a whole has stepped it up.
Italo Ferreira has knocked Kelly out of two contests this year—once in heavy lefts and once in dribbly rights. Wiggolly has two Quarterfinal finishes on the year and a win over Parko at J-Bay. Keanu Asing has gotten two of his best results (both 9ths, but still) in the past three contests, which fits perfectly with what he’s always done competitively: get better every freakin’ day. Since Margaret River, Ricardo Christie has a Quarterfinal and two of the best Round 2-losing performances of the year (see above) to his name.
Dusty Payne’s first heat of 2015 was his best heat this year, which is a shame. Matt Banting seems like he’s still searching for a CT-level rail game. They’ll both have to surf against the top seeds in the early rounds of every event from here on out, which means if they get a win, you’ll hear about it.
7. In a season defined by parity, the small mistakes matter more.
Bede Durbidge’s season is a good example for this. In J-Bay, Bede lost on a tiebreak to Michel. In Fiji, he made a silly priority mistake. In Brazil, he was propelled into Round 3 with the help of a priority mistake from Nat Young—he would go on to place second in an event he had no business doing so well in.
You could look at his season and say that if a few things went his way, he would be in the title chase. You might also say he should be on the requalification bubble, too (you’d be wrong, though not insane). But Bede, like so many surfers on tour this year, is a gigantic, teeming middle mass where anybody can beat anybody. And that parity is making the tour a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
8. A contest win at Teahupoo often goes not to the hellman, but to the tactician.
Owen Wright might be the tour’s most entertaining surfer at Teahupoo—the dude paddles into everything. And you’d be a fool not to expect him to do well this year. But CT competitions, especially when they require a big swell, often run two or three days in a row, and near the end competitors often have to surf three or four heats in a single day.
We heard a thousand times last year how Kelly and Gabriel, the two finalists, never fell before the Final. They selected the right waves and rode them with precision. They weren’t looking for one shining moment. Chances are, this year’s champion will follow a similar strategy.
My theory? A lot of surfers might get less selective because the lineup is so small—one could theoretically catch two waves in a single minute, and the possibility of getting a 10 is so alluring that even if the chances of making the wave are miniscule, it might be worth a go. In the interest of the viewership, I hope that doesn’t change.
9. Adriano de Souza has a lot to prove, but he deserves to be so close to a World Title.
He’s never placed better than fifth in the world, and while his consistent prowess is remarkable, there’s a whole lot of space between fifth and first—except, of course, for this year. While it’s rare that surfers hit their peak in their ninth year on tour, it’s not unprecedented. And Adriano kicks ass in Europe.
Whether or not you find his surfing as inspiring as his fellow highly-ranked peers, you have to admit that in a year when no one can afford another bad result, he who has made a career of minimizing mistakes and maximizing every competitive advantage, might find his window of opportunity.
10. When evaluating judging with regards to air reverses, it’s helpful to realize that it’s not a matter of whether or not they do an air reverse, but how well the air reverse is executed.
On one level, this is obvious. But all too often, the cynics will say something along these lines of: “Oh, I guess they’re giving tens for air-reverses.” Wrong. They’re throwing big scores for big moves. A huge air reverse is like a huge hack. If it’s performed in the critical part of the wave, works into the flow of the overall ride, and otherwise fits the judging criteria, the wave will be scored well. It’s not in some mythical separate category of surfing maneuver. It’s just a part of elite competitive surfing in 2015. But who cares about air reverses, anyway? We’re going to Teahupoo! See you there!
