Photo: NOAA//UPI//Shutterstock
Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have been spreading the word that this winter’s El Niño may die down and transition straight to another La Niña before the coming winter. The administration released data in early February that predicted a 55 percent chance that La Niña would develop in the summer months between June and August. New forecasts released by the administration Thursday have bumped those odds up to 62 percent in that same period and 82 percent by October.
According to at least one hurricane expert, this is just one piece of a puzzle that’s starting to look like a “very active Atlantic hurricane season.”
“The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024,” wrote the NOAA Climate Prediction Center Thursday. “Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance).”
When speaking with Axios about the latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, Miami University’s Brian McNoldy pointed out that the shift will be accompanied by ocean temperatures in the Atlantic that are already the highest on record for this time of year.
“We haven’t experienced a strong La Niña combined with Atlantic water temperatures that are this anomalously warm. At a basic level, that combination would make for a very active Atlantic hurricane season, since both of those factors individually act to nudge it upward,” McNoldy said. “Zooming in a little, we’d be more likely to see activity begin earlier in the season than normal and then during the heart of the season, we’d be more likely to see stronger storms and potentially more instances of rapid intensification.”
La Niña is often associated with increases in Atlantic hurricane activity, intensifying storms by weakening the wind sheer over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Basin. And as mentioned, it’s also common for La Niña to follow a strong El Niño, and it appears the odds keep going up for this to happen by the time hurricane season kicks off June 1.
