Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico Oct. 8, 2024. Photo: NOAA
U.S. Geological Survey scientists are painting a grim picture of Hurricane Milton’s potential impact before the massive storm makes landfall in Florida Wednesday evening. Experts issued a coastal change forecast in preparation for the storm which they’ve called a “worst case scenario,” drastically reshaping the state’s west-facing beaches.
Before moving inland, Hurricane Helene hit Florida’s Big Bend region on Sept. 26 with 140 mph winds, torrential rain and a far-reaching storm surge. Just two weeks later, Milton is aimed at Florida and expected to be “one of most destructive storms on record” for Sarasota, Manatee counties. On Monday, the USGS said 95 percent of the state’s west coast beaches are forecast to become inundated — meaning continuously covered by ocean water.
“This is the most severe level of coastal change and can cause flooding behind sand dunes that may impact coastal communities,” the USGS wrote.
They say 100 percent of those beaches will experience overwash and erosion.
“The significance of the coastal change forecast for Milton’s impact to the Florida west coast cannot be overstated as I believe communities are more vulnerable to this storm’s impacts due to the erosion that occurred recently from Helene,” said Kara Doran, a USGS supervisory physical scientist who works on the coastal change forecast. “Our initial analysis looking at imagery collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration after Helene shows most of the west coast experienced overwash or inundation and complete erosion of dunes, so those protective dunes are no longer in place for many locations.”
The USGS closed its statement by saying the coastal change forecast for Milton is a “worst case scenario,” intended to give insights to help emergency management officials make informed decisions.
