The possibilities this winter are endless.
“El Niño is coming;” it’s hard not to be giddy like a little boy when you hear those words. Scientists say that this year’s event may approach the extraordinary benchmark set nearly two decades ago, but we won’t find out until winter is in full swing.
Here’s the quick and dirty: an El Niño forms when unseasonably warm water ends up in the Pacific Ocean. This causes the jet stream to swing south for a number of months, which leads to warmer temperatures and less precipitation for the northwest. The typically reliable resorts in Washington, Oregon, Montana, and parts of Colorado are apt to have a below-average season. On the flip side, the southwest is poised to be cooler and stormier. The region should get some much-needed hydration while dirtbags from California to New Mexico will rejoice after a couple of lackluster seasons.
While El Niño has been in play all summer, we won’t enjoy its wintery affections until January or February when the storm season picks up a bit. Most of us don’t have the luxury to book a condition-dependent vacation and we’re stuck picking out flights now. To help, we’ve put together our three best bets for you to find a winter wonderland in 2016.
Taos, New Mexico
When Taos has enough snow, it’s comparable to any big-mountain resort. Unfortunately, it’s plagued by inconsistency. For the past few seasons, we’ve only had a taste of what Taos can offer. With this year’s El Niño, there’s a good chance the southern jet stream will be parked right on top of this high desert town with the potential to solve Taos’ biggest problem – erratic, short storms that sputter and spit.
When it’s full of snow, Taos is world-class. It favors advanced and expert skiers with its collection of tushy-puckering drops, narrow gullies, and some of the least friendly green and blue runs your mother-in-law has ever seen. The downside is that you’re hiking to get anywhere decent (Personally, I think it’s called downhill for a reason. I won’t hike to go anywhere, but I’ll make an exception when I visit Taos). If you can handle burning legs and lungs, you’ll be rewarded with fresh tracks in light, dry, champagne powder. You’ll probably be alone up there too; the crowds are typically thin and the lift lines are nonexistent.
Bring your: lunch, backcountry boots, and change of underwear.
Mammoth, California
Following a rough season with some of the lowest snow levels of the decade, Mammoth is poised for a triumphant return this winter. Better positioned than Tahoe to the north, this is another resort that’ll be right under El Niño’s southern jet stream. If they get the above-average snowfall that experts anticipate, the ski season will likely stretch into the early summer (though I’d recommend visiting in February or March).
No matter what you’re chasing – expansive bowls, perfect corduroy groomers, endless glades, steep chutes, or world-class terrain parks – Mammoth will provide for beginners and experts alike. The snow is a little heavy and the wind can be a bit abusive, but what it lacks in comforts it makes up in consistency. When the wind scours one side of the mountain, it creates fantastic little pockets of unexpected powder on the other.
Considering its proximity to Los Angeles and Las Vegas, short lift lines may come as a surprise, but it’s solely attributed to the modern equipment onsite. Don’t be fooled – it gets crowded here, especially if you stick to the groomers. Venturing off-piste will reward you with a huge variety of terrain and less gapers to avoid. If you’re willing to hike or know where to look, there’s no shortage of freshies, assuming you can beat the locals to the punch.
Bring your: taser, bullhorn, and knee brace.
Alta/Snowbird, Utah
It’s tough for Alta/Snowbird to have a bad season. Snow here is measured in feet, not inches, due in part to the mountain’s proximity to nearby lakes. While Brian Head (further to the south) is better positioned for El Niño, it simply doesn’t offer the same, or even similar, terrain to Alta/Snowbird. Even though Alta/Snowbird is further north, the lake effect can’t be discounted. It will pull in storms and create snow through pure witchcraft. During 1998’s El Niño, Alta/Snowbird saw record snowfall through February and I’d wager that we’re going to see something similar this time around.
I’ve scored some powder days here that are comparable to some backcountry adventures (with the added benefit of chair lifts). Some of the best terrain isn’t even marked on the trail map; there’s a lot of potential for exploration. Though a little lacking for beginners, experts will be in paradise with vertigo inducing chutes, playful cliffs to huck, and endless powder. If you’re a skier, you’ll find the thinner crowds on Alta a pleasant change of pace. Expect modest lift lines and some crowds on weekends or powder days, but you’ll be alone if you come during the week.
Bring your: powder skirt and snorkel.
Wildcard: The Northeast
If history is any indication, the northeast could be in for another fantastic winter, assuming they can avoid any arctic freezes. Here’s the rub: the stronger El Niño gets, the more precipitation the northeast will get. I’m not going to get into terrain here, you know what you have on the east coast – a few steep mogul sections, icy deathtraps, some nice trees, groomers for days, and very little that pitches more than 40 degrees (apologies to any die-hard east-coasters) – but if there’s snow, who cares, right? It’s looking like we’re in for a strong El Niño event, so keep your fingers crossed.
Bring your: ice skates, lucky rabbit’s foot.
