A La Niña year is part of the Earth’s natural cycle, but if it’s strong enough the consequences can be disastrous. Photo: NASA//Unsplash
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center issues its El Niño and La Niña watches once they see conditions for either event are favorable to develop within about six months. With a triple-dip La Niña that culminated in a heavy 2022-2023 winter going straight into the 2023-2024 El Niño, and now another La Niña on its way, NOAA forecasters haven’t had much of a break in this department.
Every month the CPC issues updates on the trends it observes and offers new probabilities of X or Y happening (or not happening) as well. If you’ve been following the CPC updates on the expected La Niña then you’ve probably noticed that the odds are increasing with every passing month. In June the CPC predicted an 85 percent chance that La Niña would be in full swing by the Northern Hemisphere winter months. The probability dropped down to 65 percent for a La Niña arrival by July-September. We are in mid-July now, sliding into the window of that latter outlook, and forecasters have once again updated the model.
#ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during August-October (70% chance) and persist into Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance for November-January). A #LaNina Watch remains in effect. https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/28c2iye7MM
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) July 11, 2024
The slight adjustment, they said, is due to “the continuation of below-average subsurface ocean temperatures and near-term forecasts suggesting a resurgence of easterly wind anomalies in July.”
