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An El Niño developing over the Pacific typically equates to a subdued hurricane season over the Atlantic. On Thursday, forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the record air and sea surface temperatures experienced in July, the hottest month globally in more than 100,000 years, are actually likely to drive an “above average” hurricane season in the Atlantic. The administration says warmer sea surface temperatures are going to counterbalance the atmospheric conditions of an El Niño that typically stifle hurricane activity.
“NOAA’s update to the 2023 outlook — which covers the entire six-month hurricane season that ends on Nov. 30 — calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70 percent confidence,” they said.
Of the 22 names selected for storms ahead of this season, 2023 has seen five. An “average” hurricane season, based on 30-year data between 1991 and 2020, typically produces 14 named storms, with seven of those developing into hurricanes. Of those seven, three are expected to develop into major hurricanes.
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.”
