Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico Oct. 8, 2024. Photo: NOAA
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season technically comes to an end on November 30, wrapping up what had been predicted to be very active fall fueled by warmer-than-average ocean temperatures and a La Niña that never developed (at least not during hurricane season).
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted as many as 25 named storms would rip through the Atlantic and even its low-end forecast looked to be higher than the region’s 30-year average. Coming off the triple-dip La Niña winter that brought us into 2023, swinging straight into an intense El Niño, a highly active hurricane season didn’t seem all that irregular. But now that we’re reaching the end of the line, the NOAA is taking inventory of how this hurricane season panned out.
“NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher),” they wrote back in May. “Of those, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including four to seven major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).”
An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Forecasters had a 70 percent confidence in those ranges and they proved to be accurate.
“The Atlantic basin saw 18 named storms in 2024 (winds of 39 mph or greater),” the administration said on Monday. “Eleven of those were hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater) and five intensified to major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). Five hurricanes made landfall in the continental U.S., with two storms making landfall as major hurricanes. The Atlantic seasonal activity fell within the predicted ranges for named storms and hurricanes issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in the 2024 August Hurricane Season Outlook.”
Within all that activity, the Atlantic Hurricane Season saw some unusual or record-setting storms. For example, Hurricane Beryl became the earliest-ever Category 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. And while Beryl was part of a fast start, the back end of this season finished with a flurry. In total, 12 named storms formed after the peak of the season in early September. Seven hurricanes formed in the Atlantic after September 25, setting another record for the most in that period. Meanwhile, when Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 on October 9, it set off a domino effect that caused a staggering 46 tornadoes.
“The impactful and deadly 2024 hurricane season started off intensely, then relaxed a bit before roaring back,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Several possible factors contributed to the peak season lull in the Atlantic region. The particularly intense winds and rains over Western Africa created an environment that was less hospitable for storm development.”
