Researchers at University of Hawaii Manoa found that if a tsunami were to hit Hawaii, the island would have four hours to prepare. Image: Hawaii Now
Think El Nino sent some epically large surf to Hawaii? This winter’s swells were nothing compared to the “megatsunami” geologists say could hammer the island chain in the next 50 years.
There is a 1 in 10 chance that a magnitude 9 earthquake in the Aleutian Archipelago could occur in that time, generating a tsunami that could travel across the North Pacific Ocean and devastate Hawaii.
The risk of such an earthquake — 9 percent to be exact — might seem small, but it’s “significant,” say the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa geologists, who published these findings in a study last week.
“These are rare events,” the study’s lead author, Rhett Butler, told Hawaii News Now. “They don’t happen all the time but there is a chance for them and our effort here is to try to define what that chance might be.”
A tsunami slamming into the islands would inflict $40 billion in damage and impact 300,000 people’s lives, one analysis found. Residents would have four hours to get to high ground if a quake in the Aleutian Islands triggered a tsunami.
